You guys might not know me for my plays on the ice, but quietly I’ve been having myself a good time over the past few weeks, posting more winners than losers. So as the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Coming off a 3-0 sweep yesterday, hitting a 5 leg Team Total parlay (moving the Team Total Record to 8-3) I’m feeling confident in continuing the hot streak. With that being said, I’m going to keep this one short and sweet, as it didn’t take long to convince myself that this was the bet I was going to take today.
Coyotes +2.5 @ 1.85.
When you look at the two teams, they are both headed in two different directions. Colorado are heading for the playoffs, looking to win the Stanley cup for a second consecutive year and Arizona, being one of the worst teams on the ice this year. Many people/Sites/Models have the Aves winning this matchup comfortably, with one website giving the Avalanche a 76% chance to win, while another gives them 74%. The bookies have the money line for the avalanche priced as little as 1.20, while the Coyotes ML is at 4.75. In my personal opinion, that’s huge value on a team who has a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, keeping all 10 games close, as well as winning 50% of Head-2-Head games with Colorado since the beginning of 2022. While the Coyotes ML may be an Unofficial sprinkle play for me, I’m going to advise something, with a little less risk, and take the Coyotes +2.5 spread
As I said previously, a lot of people will be thinking Colorado run away with this. Colorado sit in 6th in place the west, while Arizona sit 22 points below, in 13th. Don’t get me wrong, I can understand why people have Colorado winning this matchup, but I just don’t trust them to win by multiple goals. Over the course of the Last 10 games, Avalanche have a record of 7-3, including a 6-0 win against the Blackhawks, and a 5-0 win against the Sharks, both teams who sit as the two worst teams on the ice. Aside from those games, the Aves have allowed their opponents to cover a +1.5 spread in 6 of the last 10 games, one of which was a 3-2 OT win against the Coyotes. Over to the away team in this matchup, the Coyotes have covered a +1.5 spread in all 10 of their last 10 games, winning 6 outright. Looking deeper, Arizona have covered a +2.5 spread in 17 of the last 20 games. In Head-2-Head matchups since the start of 2022, there have been 6 games, with both teams splitting the record 3-3. Of those 6 games, Arizona covered a +1.5 spread in 5. Colorado are 35-35 against the spread so far this season, with the majority of those games being the favourites (-1.5 spread), while Arizona are 41-31 against the spread, with only 6 games being favoured, they are used to covering a +1.5 spread.
Without sounding like a broken record, I LOVE coyotes to cover a +1.5 spread today, but if they are going to offer an extra goal for the same price as a normal +1.5 spread, why not take it? As bad as the Coyotes have been this season, I believe giving any team a 2 goal cushion in most occasions is too much, especially if they are good at grinding out games and keeping them within one or two like the Coyotes have been recently.
I posted this line earlier today. The odds were at 1.85 and I have played this for 2U. I am happy to play this all the way down to 1.5, so the 2U stake would return 1U, but as I got higher odds, I’m going to record it at the line I got. Hopefully some of you jumped on my earlier tweet when I posted it at better odds!