Since Castillo joined Seattle at the trade deadline last season, Castillo had pitched at T-Mobile Park 5 times, posting an ERA of 1.42 and 0.75 WHIP.
At home so far this season, Castillo has an ERA of 1.14 and 0.67 WHIP in 4 starts. In the 9 total home starts in a Mariners uniform, he has only allowed an average of 6.8 runs scored, posting an ERA of 1.3 and a 4-0 record.
In total this season, he has started 6 times, boasting only a 2-0 record. He currently sits with an 1.82 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, while only giving up 7 runs, and one home run.
Luis currently has a 5-1 NRFI record, allowing only one run (to the cardinals) so far this season.
Javier - 3.48 ERA.
Javier has only played 2 games away from home during this season so far, with both results being the total opposite. In his first away start, he allowed the (Surprisingly Red Hot) Pirates to score 4 runs of 2 Home Runs, while in his second away start, he allowed only one earned run to the Braves, on a home run hit by Pillar in the 5th inning.
During the course of the 2023 season, Javier hasn’t been as dominant as the 2022 season. Early on, his ERA has increased from 2.54 in 2022, to 3.48 in 2023. With that being said, 4 of his 6 opponents to start the year, have all ranked inside the top 15 for OPS so far this season. One thing that does remain the same, is he starts off his games in an effective way. Christian boasts a 5-1 NRFI record, only allowing one run (to the White Sox), which was in his first game of the season. Since then, he has gone 5 games straight with no runs allowed in the first inning.
Mariners
Seattle hasn’t found their groove offensively to start the season. During the first month of the season, Seattle ranked in the bottom 5 in OPS. They’ve continued to struggle, ranking in 30th for batter rating and 29th for OBP over the last 2 weeks.
Seattle average 4.3 RPG which ranks them in the middle of the league, as well as being the second most struck out team in baseball, averaging 9.8 Ks per game. As their offence has been cold, their defence has been warmer. They sit inside the top 10, in 9th place for opponents RPG, allowing an average of 4, and more recently only allowing an average of 2 in their last 3 games. Mariners are the in the top 10 ranked teams for NRFI’s this season, with the NRFI hitting in 70% of games, and 100% in their last 3 games.
Astros
Similar to the Mariners, the Astros offence hasn’t looked good. You wouldn’t think this offence got to the World Series last season with the way they’ve been playing so far this year. In The first month of the season, Houston found themselves 19th in OPS, and more recently ranking 25th in batter rating, and 23rd in OPS over the last 14 days.
Astros bats average 4.4 RPG, but their defence has been their upside, sitting in 4th for opponent RPG with an average of 4.8. The Astros are ranked inside the bottom 10 teams to back for a NRFI, with a NRFI percentage at 64%
Head-To-Head Matchups.
Castillo has only faced Houston once in his career and in that game, he allowed 2 earned runs as he recorded the win. The NRFI hit in this game. On the other side, Javier has faced the Mariners 7 times in his career. Over those 7 games, he’s allowed 6 Earned runs, with 5 earned runs being scored in the most recent game they played. He holds an ERA of 2.08 against the Mariners, only allowing a NRFI one game out of 7.
In the last 5 H2H games, the NRFI has only hit in 2 (the most recent 2 H2H games.)
Although the NRFI has only hit in 2 of the last 5 H2H matchups, I fully expect this game to start low scoring. 2 aces on the mound, both like to start strong, and both offences struggling. Personally, I believe the Mariners have the pitching advantage, and I expect castillo to shut down this Houston offence from the word go. On the other side, the mariners bats should continue to be cold to start the game, giving Javier a nice chance to start this game off on the front foot!